Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India]June 26 (ANI): India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal year (FY22) is 10.1% is speed. Covid 2.0 scale.
Currently, GDP growth is expected to reach 9.6% in FY2010. However, this is conditioned on India’s vaccination of the entire adult population by December 31st.
The average daily vaccination from June 1st to 20th was 32 Rakı in total, rising to 87.3 Rakı on June 21st. India can reach 9.6% if the pace of vaccination is maintained near June 21 levels, Ind-Ra said. the goal.
“If the vaccination target is delayed by three months due to slow vaccination or lack of vaccine, GDP growth in 2010 will drop to 9.1% further.” The Indian economy has long slowed consumption. I was witnessing. The Covid-19 pandemic hit it. Private Final Consumer Expenditure (PFCE) growth fell from 11.2% in the third quarter of 2017 to 2% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Covid 1.0 exacerbated the blockade as it had a major impact on work, livelihoods and households. PFCE collapsed to minus 26.2% in the first quarter of 2009.
Since then, it has recovered and Ind-Ra expects to increase its pace this year. However, it has been pushed back from Covid 2.0.
“Unlike Covid 1.0, Covid 2.0 has spread to the hinterland, so the push back to consumer demand is expected to be more pronounced in rural areas,” Ind-Ra said at 10.8% PFCE growth. I’m expecting it.
With overcapacity still in the manufacturing industry, weak domestic demand and continued growth in the balance sheet of Indian infrastructure companies, there can be no meaningful investment revival before FY2011.
This year’s near-normal monsoon means good agricultural production and income for the third consecutive year.
Agricultural income currently accounts for only about one-third of rural income, but given the backward-forward connections to some non-agricultural rural activities, they together make a living for most of the rural population. To provide.
Ind-Ra expects agricultural growth to reach 3% in 2010. On the other hand, unlike Covid 1.0, the industrial sector is expected to grow by 10.9% year-on-year as it was allowed to continue operations during the blockade of Covid 2.0.
Services, especially segments such as aviation, tourism, hotels, sports, entertainment and hospitality, have survived the storm and are expected to grow again by 10.4%, primarily due to last year’s low levels.
India La said there are signs of concern at the forefront of inflation, even though GDP growth remains a major concern for policy makers.
Wholesale and retail inflation in May was 12.5% and 6.3%. Given last year’s high base, it’s still too early to believe that retail inflation will continue to exceed 6%.
Therefore, Ind-Ra expects average retail and wholesale inflation to be 5.5% and 6.6% in 2010, respectively. (ANI)